Syria-An Impossible Problem

It occurs to me that discussion of a new war, this time in Syria, is a discussion worth having, before the United States commits.  In my opinion, we must recognize quicksand or find ourselves sinking.

Syria is a country in the Middle East. It borders on Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq.  The country has been ruled by the Assad family since 1971.  The country is Arab and split politically between Shia and Sunni Muslim sects.  The current leader is Bashar al-Assad who became President at the death of his father, Hafez, in 2000.

The primary allies of Syria and more importantly the supplies of weapons are Iran and Russia.  This is the prologue.

There has been a civil war raging in Syria, not for two years or three, but thirty.  Hafez al-Assad killed as many as 40,000 Syrians in Hama.  In the current crisis, as many as 100,000 citizens have died, and more than 2 million have fled to neighboring countries, causing a regional humanitarian crisis.

If the US intervenes militarily and alone, Iran has already promised reprisal against Israel.  Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, and already involved in Syrian fighting, has rocket launchers on the Israeli border.  Syrian has a well equipped air force, capable of attacking the navy ships in the Mediterranean.  If we attack alone we have started this war.  We jeopardize Israel, and damage further the US position as a moral leader in the world. 

On the other hand, if we don't respond to the use of chemical weapons, banned by international treaty for almost 100 years, and updated by 189 countries within the past 10 years, the US appears weak and unwilling to commit to stop use of weapons outlawed internationally.  The actions of the US has implications both at home and abroad.  Both friend and foe alike are waiting to see if the US will act.  Iran, the leading culprit in the Middle East, has a nuclear program which threatens the region.  Pakistan already has nuclear weapons.  Off shoots of Al-Queda are already active in Iraq and in Syria.  Israel will not wait to be attacked if the US fails to do so.  Russia will block any attempt to stop the Assad slaughter in the UN Security Council, and then say the US didn't get international support before acting.  At home, the Republican Party in Congress, traditionally in favor of intervention, has overnight become dovish, out of its continual effort to damage the Obama Presidency.  If Obama intervenes in Syria, the Republicans will attack him: if he doesn't, the Republicans will attack him.

The war in Syria is also civil war.  Some right-wing commentators say that  there is no national security interest in intervention.  The Democrats who are reluctant are balking.  Why step into a civil war? 

So, there is no good answer, militarily.  Over 100,000 people have been murdered by their government in Syria.  Without support from a large international coalition, the humanitarian crisis will continue, and perhaps get worse.  Already, the neighboring countries are being stretched to a breaking point to absorb more refugees.  For instance, 1 in 5 people in Jordan are Syrian refugees.  If on the other hand, the US is unable to gain a coalition, and intervenes with even a minor military action, will we stop the butchery?  No one knows what responses will come from the opposition. 

The conclusion is if we go for humanitarian reasons, we still lose.  If we don't, we still lose.  "No man is an island" said the poet.  "Says who?" said the President.

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Why I Am Voting on November 6th

I am a Democrat.  I haven't always voted for Democrats.  But I am voting.

I am a Democrat because I believe that our country does best as a community.  It provides the opportunity of success for all its citizens, yet it shows compassion and offers help to those who need it.

It lends a hand to guide the next generation up the ladder, rather than push the ladder over.

I believe in equality, but mostly in equality of justice, that rules and benefits apply to all.

I believe that a quality education is the road to success, and that if we hope to pass on the wonder of America, educating and training our fellow citizens and ourselves is our first priority.

I believe in government-effective, efficient government which exists to promote the best interests of all our people, not just groups in search of an special advantage.  I believe government can, should and must address the great issues facing us, not as a matter of politics, but as a matter of survival; and I believe that government must create programs to solve these problems.  I believe that it can.

And I believe that I have an obligation commensurate with the privilege and good fortune given me to be an American that I should pay my fair share to keep this country great.

Thomas Jefferson had great faith in the wisdom of the people of this country.  I have begun to doubt his wisdom.  I hope I am wrong.

I am a Democrat and a democrat.  On November 6th, I am casting my vote, which has  been secured and preserved for me over the years by those more heroic than I, for President Barack Obama, and other candidates who believe in the Promise of America for all.

What Makes a Society Strong? Part 2-Employment

What occurs to me is that the old adage that idle hands are the devil's workshop is probably true.  Certainly there are numerous current examples of how that might be so.  There are also many examples of different effects of the devil's work.

Employment is the source of life for most people throughout the world.  Simply stated, it provides 2 significant factors with a positive influence on society.  First, the obvious one is money, which provides food, shelter and clothing, and hopefully a little more.  Second, having gainful employment provides a means to achieve a sense that each day has had some accomplishment.

The opposite is also true.  Here's where the devil comes to play.  When people are without the ability to obtain the basics for existence, they are forced to find a means for survival.  They also are unable to see a positive outcome each day.

What are the social consequences of employment?  Probably too many for a non-academic to list, but include the ability to meet personal obligations-paying bills which most people want to do, the ability to "provide" for a family, the increase in choices of how and where to live, the reduction in reliance on government.

In my opinion, most people are more interested in taking care of themselves and their loved ones than they are in taking handouts.  I'm sure there are plenty of studies of poverty and unemployment that bear this out.  Having a job which pays enough to be socially mobile imbues a sense of freedom, from want, from criticism, from government.  I certainly would prefer doing what I want on my time than being forced to make choices between worse and worst.

Not everyone will become rich by working, at least not rich by today's measures.  But most people aren't interested in being rich.  They want to be comfortable, have a few bucks to go out for dinner and a movie, to buy a car, or a house.  By and large, they want to be left alone to do what they want.
And most people are willing to do what they need to do to get there if they can.

If there is any doubt about what happens when there is a permanent poverty stricken populace decides it has had enough, even with no goal or specific vision of how life could be better, look at the youth of Egypt.  80% of Egypt is young and poor.  They can be influenced by opportunists with an agenda, telling them someone else is responsible for their condition.  Today, where once there was a great advanced culture, there is little advancement.  In spite of the century, they are still in the Dark Ages.  The devil keeps them there.

Full employment in America is still considered only having 5% unemployed.  What needs to be created in full employment, good wages and fulfilling work.  Don't be fooled by "fulfilling".  People find satisfaction in many ways, which is why so many people don't like their jobs.  They are fulfilled by the fruits of their labor-a paycheck.

To keep the devil out, we rely on ourselves first, and then if that fails, we hope that there are other helping hands to get us back on our feet.  That is why in my opinion we need a strong, focused government with leaders more intent on helping this country, which is made up of millions of people, not voting blocs, and less interested in themselves than in the people who put them there.

A strong society requires its members (the people's country club) to be active participants in its success.  To be successful and to remain strong, a society has to work collectively to make all of its members successful.  No one does it alone.  To be strong, we must be a community.

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What Makes a Society Strong? Part One-Education

What occurs to me is that we have forgotten what creates muscles.  Exercise is the answer. Constant exercise.  How then do we create intellectual muscle?  Exercise?  We call it education.  In a recent article, I don't remember who wrote it, I read that 80 million members of our workforce have a high school education, out of 130 million workers.  The bulk of new jobs that will be available will require exercise.  Our current workforce is undertrained for the current market.  There are today more than three million jobs nationwide which are available, but there are not enough people with the needed skills to fill the jobs.

There is a need at the corporate level to recognize that internal growth will require upgrading their own workforces.  With continuing education.  Not just rewarding people for taking classes, but coordinating the corporate need with educators.  And educators need to upgrade their own skills.  Here's a problem that is easily solved.  Kids today know more about computers than their teachers, and the schools don't teach the skills that the market will need.  This speaks to the state education departments who fail in properly designing curriculum.  Why do colleges have so many "english majors"?  Maybe the entire education infrastructure needs a new look.

Education is important in and of itself.  An educated populace is engaged in the activities of life-family, community, the world.  Education is also important when applied to employment.  America has moved beyond the basic manufacturing economy of the past.  Manufacturing no longer is the business of the past.  Today it is complex, and more often than not it is sophisticated.  Learning to function in that environment requires education capable of matching that sophistication.

How we reach that level is another conversation.  It is clear, however, if we remain at the current levels of science and technology in comparison to the rest of the world, America will become a fallen empire.  We will go the way of Rome, the British Empire.  Yet, we as a country have continually said we are not a second rate nation, we can do better.

To do better, we need a longer time horizon, and a plan to reach a lofty goal-returning to the top.  This is not about teachers' unions, or charter schools, or Federal laws or state programs.  What it is about is demanding of all the participants-students, teachers, parents, government-that excellence is not a hope, but an expectation.  And knowing and understanding why it is important needs to be a part of curriculum design, political discussion, social programs, and community involvement.  Otherwise, we doom our children to second class citizenship, and our country to a status which our foreparents would not have found acceptable.

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Guns and Tears, Part 5

What occurs to me is that it is very soon, too soon, since Guns and Tears, part 4 discussed the continuing epidemic of gun violence which goes on unrelenting.  On Friday night, in Aurora, Colorado, a movie crowd was attacked by a man with a semi-automatic rifle, shotgun and Glock pistol.  12 more dead, 58 wounded, and a weekend of horror including disarming an apartment full of explosives. 

The apartment contained 6000 rounds of ammunition.  The gunman had obtained bullet proof gear similar to what SWAT teams use.  This attack had been planned.

Today, there are more families and friends mourning.  Another lone gunman, perhaps mentally imbalanced, says the NRA.  All weaponry obtained legally.  And the kicker, political blab is "nothing would have been different" if we had better control of guns.  Excuse me, but that doesn't make any sense.  Guns do kill people, dead.  They wound and they will permanently affect those who survived, and the families of those who were killed.  "Our prayers and condolences are with the families of the victims."  Talk about meaningless, empty words.

Unlimited magazines, unlimited ammunition purchase, and unlimited deregulation of firearms equal unlimited killings.  When will we, law-abiding citizens, who as part of our 2nd Amendment rights, to not bear arms, yell loud enough to say this is indeed the time, the best time, to discuss rational ways to control access to these killers.

I have postulated that our political class should be made up entirely of females.  That would at least give us a rational explanation for politicians not having balls.

Guns DO kill people.

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Understanding Unemployment

What occurs to me is that people aren't going back to work any time soon.  Not because they don't want to.  Not because they are "lazy", "spoiled", "animals" or other nice things that have been said about the jobless by Republican "leaders".  Rather, they are not going back to work because even low wage jobs are not readily available, and in particular, the long term unemployed are lacking the specific skills needed in the current economy.

We are living with the worst long term unemployment since the Great Depression.  Then, the unemployment rate was higher, and went from the early 1930s until the middle of World War II.  In between, while the private sector was recovering, the government moved decisively to provide a source of income to millions, who in turn, spent what they made.  When the New Deal programs were cut back, the economy worsened, until the war activated employment in the "war effort".

Today, the statistics are appallling, but can be and have been analyzed by economists everywhere.  The first line of defense was Unemployment Insurance, not available in the 1930s.  The individual States are responsible for the first 26 weeks of benefits.  After that, the Federal Government picks up the tab.  And what is that tab?  Well, there's a good question.  I have searched for 2 years to find out how much has been spent on unemployment benefits by both the States and the Feds.  I know the data is around, because I called Mark Zandi, got an assistant, who told me it was proprietary to his company, Moody's.  I tried the Bureau of Labor Statistics, not available.  I tried columnists, no answer.  I asked a friend who runs a State Unemployment program.  No response.

So I did some arithmetic.  Learned it in grade school.  I assumed $250.00 per week and 12.7 million people unemployed and still looking for work, as of June 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  That totals $165.1 Billion Dollars, per year.  Understand that this is my estimate.  But if you add that since 2009, that's a lot of money.  And I would bet every penny was spent back into the economy.

What does that mean?  It means that there are a lot of people who could have been put back to work, earning a living, even a meager one, for the dollars spent after week 26.  It means that state coffers would not be empty,  and no longer available for continued unemployment.  The 99ers, so called because the maximum number of weeks the benefits will be paid is 99 weeks, would have a chance to get up each morning, go to a job, and not slowly be forgotten.  They would have a chance to maintain or rebuild a skill set necessary to participate gainfully in this economy.

The failure of Congress to implement a modern day version of the New Deal is criminal neglect.  There is and has been structural unemployment in this country for years.  Structural unemployment is simply defined as the lack of skilled workers in a place where the skills are needed.  People are structurally unemployed because they do not have the skills required to fill jobs in their location.  Matching skills and mobility is necessary to resolve this condition.  That means today you have to have a knowledge of computers, hardware and software, to be qualified for virtually any job.  You need an education.  Reading and writing are nowhere near enough.  There are no factories, where granddad and dad worked anymore.  There is a racial component to structural unemployment, which is a book by itself.

Okay, so what do we do?  Lots of people much smarter than I am have proposed a variety of answers.  To me, the most effective way to move things forward is a commitment by the Federal government, I mean Congress, to do what has not been done.  The Society of Civil Engineers has said that the infrastructure of America, built by a generation deserving to be called "Greatest", has lived its useful life and needs to be rebuilt.  The commitment I have in mind is this.  The Engineers said to repair what needs fixing will costs $2.2 Trillion.  For the next 10 years, commit $220 Billion to rebuilding America.  That's about the same amount as unemployment costs us now, and a little more taken from the Defense Department since we are not spending it in Iraq.  So far, no new tax money.

I did a little more arithmetic.  220 Billion divided by an average wage of $40,000 would put 5.4 million people back to work.  For 10 years.  The money they will spend, plus the new business that will be created around the new construction areas, will further expand the growth.  It's not a "high paying job", but it's work.  And it matters.  It will take 2 million newly employed people to reduce the unemployment rate by 1%.  This approach still won't bring us to full employment, and doesn't take into consideration the 12-15 million others who are working part-time or who have given up.  But positive movement has always created its own inertia.  It will this time too.

There is another part of the plan that must be included and integrated to make the whole work.  Training and education.  We must increase and improve the focus on education for future employment needs now.  Industrial skills, information technology skills, financial skills are all going to be needed in the future and will bring structural unemployment to an end.  Without this kind of commitment, we will watch politicians allow this country to go dissolve into ruin, on many levels.  The shame of it is that it doesn't have to happen.

We are all in this mess together.  The proverbial rising tide raises all boats.  But we need to have the boats first.

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Writing A Book

What occurs to me is that I have been remiss in continuing to be present in the blogosphere.  Not a good excuse, but I have finished the final preparation for publishing my first book.  Hopefully not my last.  I have to say that the more I write with a product in mind, the more fun it has become.  My first book is a retrospective on the 20th Century and early 2000s, following the people and events through the life of a remarkable man, my Dad.  Born before World War I, he lived through the Depression, was an Army officer during World War II, and was part of a generation of people who went on to build new lives and a new world, creating the most successful nation in the history of the world.  His part was unique as those who knew him realized.  But his part was not his alone.  He was among a generation who saw the future and molded their lives to reach that future, to the benefit of those who would follow.  I have told his story.  You may have a story to tell also.  Tell it.  We no longer have the written personal histories which historians will be able to discover in old boxes.  We have emails, delete. 

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